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Understanding Expected Value
Why a 55% pick at -110 is profitable long-term — and how to think about value.
What Is Expected Value?
Expected value (EV) is the average amount you win or lose per bet if you made the same bet an infinite number of times. Positive EV (+EV) means you'll profit long-term. Negative EV (-EV) means you'll lose.
The key insight: you can lose a +EV bet and win a -EV bet in the short run. EV only reveals itself over many bets.
The Math: A 55% Pick at -110
Imagine you have a pick you believe wins 55% of the time, and the odds are -110. For every $110 you risk, you win $100.
EV per $110 bet: +$5.50 (about 5% ROI on each bet). Over 500 bets, that's +$2,750 in expected profit.
The Key Equation
Where "Win%" is your model's probability estimate, "Profit" is what you win if correct, "Loss%" is 1 − Win%, and "Stake" is what you risk.
Price vs. Probability
Value betting is about finding gaps between what you think will happen and what the book is pricing in. A pick you think wins 60% of the time but is priced at +100 (50% implied) has enormous value.
The SandlotSharp EV calculator on each pick card does this math automatically. Enter the odds you see at your book, and it shows you the estimated EV based on the model's edge score.
Why Losing Doesn't Mean Wrong
Even a 65% model loses 35% of the time. If you bet a 65% pick and it loses, you made the right decision with the information available. Judging a pick's quality by a single outcome is the biggest mistake bettors make. Judge by the process, not the result.